Millions of livelihoods depend on immediate action! — 197 million jobs at risk.
Our latest research from economic modelling looks at the impact faced by the Travel & Tourism sector amid local and global travel restrictions as a result of COVID-19.
More than 197 million jobs could be lost in the global Travel & Tourism sector if prolonged travel restrictions measures and lack of urgency remain in place, resulting in the loss of $5.5 trillion in Travel & Tourism GDP.
In the worst-case scenario, lifts on restrictions take place after the summer, resulting in a more significant impact, putting a total of 197.5 million jobs at risk.
These figures represent an alarming 96% rise from the last estimated statistics reported on 100.8 million jobs to be under threat from the coronavirus pandemic.
WTTC research shows that removing these travel restrictions sooner could save a staggering 99.3 million jobs. The impact of prolonged travel restrictions could also wipe out $5,543 billion in the sector’s contribution to global GDP, equating to a 62% drop compared with 2019.
Meanwhile, in the worst-case scenario, global international arrivals will suffer a sharp decline of 73% and domestic 64%.
WTTC’s extensive research and expert analysis carried out this week came up with three possible outcomes for the sector:
1. Worst-case scenario: Current restrictions starting to ease from September for short-haul and regional travel, from October for mid-haul and from November for the long-haul.
In this scenario, 197.5 million jobs could be lost in the global Travel & Tourism sector, with a loss of $5,543 billion in global GPD. Meanwhile, global visitor numbers would drop by 73% for international arrivals.
2. Baseline scenario: Current restrictions starting to ease from June for regional travel, July for short-haul or local travel; from August for mid-haul, and from September for the long-haul.
This scenario could represent a total of 121.1 million jobs lost in the global Travel & Tourism sector, with a loss of $3,435 billion in global GDP. Meanwhile, global visitor numbers would drop by 53% for international arrivals and by 34% for domestic arrivals.
3. Best-case scenario: Current measures starting to ease from June for short-haul and regional travel; from July for mid-haul and from August for the long-haul.
Therefore a total of 98.2 million jobs could be lost in the Travel & Tourism sector, half the number in the worst-case scenario, with a loss of $2,686 billion in global GDP. Meanwhile, global visitor numbers would drop by 41% for international arrivals and by 26% for domestic arrivals.
While the best-case scenario would undoubtedly still result in a devastating blow for Travel & Tourism, this outcome avoids unnecessary additional harm to the sector as a result of prolonged travel restrictions. It protects almost 100 million jobs around the world that could otherwise be lost.
This best-case scenario can still be achieved for the global Travel & Tourism sector if Governments around the globe follow WTTC’s recommended four-point plan.
Firstly, the immediate removal and replacement of any quarantine measures, with ‘’air corridors’’ to countries with similar circumstances to stimulate the Travel & Tourism sector and the global economy, as well as the removal of travel advisories and bans on non- essential international travel, which prevent insurance protection cover for travellers.
Thirdly, the implementation of a rapid test and trace strategy to help contain the spread of the virus, while still allowing people to travel responsibly at home and abroad.
And finally, more significant, and sustained collaboration between the public and private sectors to ensure a standardised, global approach to the crisis.
Learn more about our #SafeTravels initiative at www.wttc.org/safetravels